KalshiOpen

10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?: Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.14 on Dec 31, 2026? 5.15% or above

5.15% or above62%

No38%

Price checked at Sep 29, 08:14 PM UTC

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24h volume$114.1

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread4%

ResolvesDec 31, 2026in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the 10Y US Treasury Yield is above 5.14% on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Dec 31, 2026, or one week following Dec 31, 2026.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?: Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.09 on Dec 31, 2026? 5.1% or above	Kalshi	69% No	$640	—	—	Open
10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?: Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.49 on Dec 31, 2026? 5.5% or above	Kalshi	63% 5.5% or above	$362.8	—	—	Open
10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?: Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.24 on Dec 31, 2026? 5.25% or above	Kalshi	65% 5.25% or above	$346.8	—	—	Open
10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?: Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.99 on Dec 31, 2026? 6% or above	Kalshi	85% No	$125.7	—	—	Open
10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?: Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.99 on Dec 31, 2026? 5% or above	Kalshi	68% 5% or above	$107	—	—	Open
10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?: Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.74 on Dec 31, 2026? 5.75% or above	Kalshi	75% No	$35.2	—	—	Open
10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?: Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.74 on Dec 31, 2026? 4.75% or above	Kalshi	78% 4.75% or above	$22.4	—	—	Open

Venue activity

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As of Sep 29, 08:28 PM UTC