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FDA decision: Ivonescimab by Summit Therapeutics (in 2026): What will the FDA's decision be on Ivonescimab by Summit Therapeutics in 2026? a full approval or an accelerated approval

a full approval or an accelerated approval60%
No40%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
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Spread5%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 13Sep 19Sep 25Sep 30Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the FDA's decision on Ivonescimab by Summit Therapeutics in 2026 is a full approval or an accelerated approval, the market resolves to Yes. This market will resolve to No if the FDA's decision is a denial (CRL issued), a withdrawal by the sponsor, or a conditional approval — or if no decision is issued. Ivonescimab (also called AK112 or SMT112) is a bispecific antibody — think of it as a single engineered drug molecule that carries two different "hooks" instead of one, allowing it to grab and block two disease-promoting proteins at the same time. It was developed by Akeso and is being commercialized outside China by Summit Therapeutics. By simultaneously neutralizing both targets, ivonescimab is designed to slow cancer growth more effectively than drugs that block only one pathway at a time. This market and these products have not been endorsed by any aforementioned brands or its affiliates. Any references to the brand, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the brand or its affiliates and Kalshi.

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As of Sep 30, 10:47 PM UTC