KalshiOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

CA-04 House winner?: Who will win the 2026 CA-04 House election? Eric Jones

No80%

Eric Jones20%

Price checked at Oct 1, 03:34 PM UTC

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24h volume$91

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread3%

ResolvesNov 3, 2026next month

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Eric Jones wins the 2026 CA-04 House election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. Polymarket uses election results, with FEC results controlling if needed; Kalshi permits accelerated determination after a media consensus projects the winner. They also settle at different times, but both concern the same 2026 election outcome.

PolymarketOpen →
Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
29 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 28, 11:32 PM UTC
Kalshithis market
CA-04 House winner?: Who will win the 2026 CA-04 House election? Eric Jones
If Eric Jones wins the 2026 CA-04 House election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
read Sep 30, 10:12 AM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
CA-04 House winner?: Who will win the 2026 CA-04 House election? Mike Thompson	Kalshi	80% Mike Thompson	$6.2	—	—	Open

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As of Oct 1, 03:35 PM UTC