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What will the peak RONI value be for the NDJ 2026-27 quarter?: Will the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season be at least 2.0°C?

At least 2.0°C92%
No8%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread2%
ResolvesApr 5, 2027in 6 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 12Sep 18Sep 24Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is at least 2.0°C, then the market resolves to Yes. The peak RONI value is determined solely from values published in the NOAA CPC official RONI table that are designated as final (non-preliminary). For La Niña contracts, the peak RONI value refers to the single most negative (i.e., lowest) RONI value. The latest Expiration Date shall be one week after the Source Agency publishes the final RONI value for the last three-month period falling within the time period. However, if the peak RONI value necessary to determine the Market Outcome can be conclusively established prior to that date (e.g., the season has formally ended and all relevant values are final), expiration may be moved to an earlier date and time.

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As of Sep 29, 10:12 PM UTC