M2 money supply growth at year-end 2026: Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.4%? 5.0% to 5.4%
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If the M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 is between 5.0% and 5.4%, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, “M2 money-supply growth” means the year-over-year percent change in the seasonally adjusted M2 money stock for December 2026, calculated using FRED series M2SL. The year-over-year percent change will be calculated as follows: December 2026 M2SL divided by December 2025 M2SL, minus one, expressed as a percentage and rounded to one decimal place. This market will use the first value published by FRED for December 2026. Revisions released after the first publication of the December 2026 value will not be considered.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.Venue activity
Read from the venue this minuteDiscussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
As of Sep 30, 10:00 PM UTC