KalshiOpen

Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Canada provides the United States and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027? Canadian withdrawal notice

No95%

Canadian withdrawal notice5%

Price checked at Sep 30, 01:04 AM UTC

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24h volume$0

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Spread8%

ResolvesJan 8, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Canada provides the United States and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This event is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States provides Canada and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027? U.S. withdrawal notice	Kalshi	87% No	$0	—	—	Open
Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and Mexico reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027? U.S.–Mexico interim agreement	Kalshi	61% No	$0	—	—	Open
Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States, Mexico, and Canada jointly announce, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, an agreement in principle establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA while preserving it as a trilateral agreement, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027? Trilateral revised deal	Kalshi	76% No	$0	—	—	Open
Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and Canada reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027? U.S.–Canada interim agreement	Kalshi	75% No	$0	—	—	Open
Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States, Mexico, and Canada each provide the written head-of-government confirmation required by Article 34.7 to extend USMCA for another 16-year term before Jan 1, 2027? Formal 16-year extension	Kalshi	81% No	$0	—	—	Open
Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Mexico provides the United States and Canada written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027? Mexican withdrawal notice	Kalshi	95% No	$0	—	—	Open
Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an amendment to USMCA enters into force under Article 34.3 before Jan 1, 2027? Formal USMCA amendment	Kalshi	87% No	$0	—	—	Open

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As of Sep 30, 01:32 AM UTC