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Will SCOTUS let the Labor Department impose H-2A monetary remedies through agency proceedings?: Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Department of Labor in Department of Labor v. Sun Valley Orchards, LLC Before Aug 1, 2028

No85%
Before Aug 1, 202815%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
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Spread7%
ResolvesAug 1, 2028in 2 years

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 13Sep 19Sep 25Sep 30Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the Supreme Court, in Department of Labor v. Sun Valley Orchards, LLC, rules federal law authorizes the Department of Labor to adjudicate proceedings imposing monetary remedies for violations of H-2A employment conditions and that Article III permits those agency adjudications, then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled that 8 U.S.C. § 1188(g)(2) authorizes the Department of Labor to adjudicate proceedings to collect monetary remedies from employers alleged to have violated the terms and conditions of employment of H-2A workers or domestic workers in corresponding employment, and that Article III does not preclude the Department from conducting those adjudications, after Issuance and before August 1, 2028. The market resolves to No if the Court rules either that § 1188(g)(2) does not authorize such adjudications or that Article III precludes them. If the case is dismissed, found improvidently granted, or remanded without a merits ruling establishing both statutory authorization and constitutional permissibility, the market resolves to No.

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As of Sep 30, 10:41 PM UTC