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Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Iowa holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

No93%
Iowa7%

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ResolvesApr 8, 2028in 2 years

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 12Sep 18Sep 24Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Iowa holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A contest counts regardless of whether the Democratic National Committee sanctions, recognizes, or gives delegate effect to it. If multiple states vote on the same day, the market will resolve to 1 / N where N is the number of tied states. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

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As of Sep 29, 10:20 PM UTC