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When will insulated copper cable face Section 232 restrictions?: Will it be reported by the Federal Register that a Section 232 import restriction takes effect for articles classified under HTSUS statistical reporting number 8544.49.3040 before Jan 1, 2027?

No87%
Before Jan 1, 202713%

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Spread8%
ResolvesJan 8, 2028next year

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 13Sep 19Sep 25Oct 1Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If a Section 232 import restriction takes effect for articles classified under HTSUS statistical reporting number 8544.49.3040 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A qualifying restriction is an additional duty above 0%, tariff-rate quota, absolute quota, or other binding quantitative import limit. Coverage through a successor or broader provision qualifies only if it fully encompasses the target line. Country carve-outs, metal-content thresholds, and other generally applicable conditions do not disqualify coverage, but coverage limited to a product or end-use subset of the line does. The restriction must take effect; merely signing or issuing an instrument with a later effective date does not qualify until that date. Only reporting from the Federal Register qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

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As of Oct 1, 06:10 AM UTC