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Next German federal election winner?: Will BSW win the next election to the German Bundestag?

No99%
BSW1%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
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Spread1%
ResolvesMar 25, 2030in 3 years

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 12Sep 18Sep 24Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If BSW wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For purposes of this market, the seats won by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) will be combined and treated as a single CDU/CSU option This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

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As of Sep 29, 10:18 PM UTC