How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?: Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 4 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

If the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats is at least 4 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. A candidate is considered unaffiliated with a political party if the relevant election authority identifies the candidate as Independent, Nonpartisan, No Party Preference, No Party Affiliation, Unaffiliated, by petition without a party designation, or an equivalent no-party designation. Candidates identified with a political party do not count. Endorsements and post-election caucus affiliation do not affect the count.