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Will California home prices increase YoY in Q4 2026?: Will California’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only HPI for Q4 2026 be above 419.85?

Above 419.8553%

No47%

Price checked at Sep 30, 12:00 AM UTC

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24h volume$0

7d volume—

30d volume—

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Spread1%

ResolvesMar 2, 2027in 5 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If California’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only HPI for Q4 2026 is above 419.85, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the index_sa value for California (CA), year 2026, quarter 4, in the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s quarterly state Purchase-Only House Price Index dataset. This is a Q4-over-Q4 comparison, not an annual average. The 419.85 baseline is fixed to the Q4 2025 value at Issuance; later revisions to Q4 2025 do not change the strike.

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As of Sep 30, 12:18 AM UTC