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Will the House pass a cap on federal student loan interest rates?: Will a bill capping federal student loan interest rates passed the House before Oct 2, 2026?

No95%
Before Oct 2, 20265%

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ResolvesJan 3, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 13Sep 19Sep 25Oct 1Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

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Resolution rules

If a bill capping federal student loan interest rates has passed the House after Issuance and before Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. A qualifying bill is legislation that would set, for at least one category of federal student loan, a maximum interest rate lower than the maximum applicable to that category under the law in force on the Issuance date. A rate of zero qualifies. Legislation that re-enacts or technically amends the existing maximums without lowering any of them does NOT qualify, and neither does a cap on fees, monthly payments or total repayment. The measure must pass the full House by any means, including voice vote, unanimous consent, suspension of the rules, a special rule or a discharge petition. It may be any vehicle, including a larger package whose text as passed contains a qualifying cap. Committee approval, a rule providing for consideration, or a discharge petition reaching 218 signatures without passage does NOT count. Senate passage, enactment, and a cap imposed by regulation rather than by the House do NOT count.

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As of Oct 1, 10:07 AM UTC