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Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?: Will Angela Rayner be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?

No98%
Angela Rayner2%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
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Spread7%
ResolvesJan 8, 2028next year

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 12Sep 18Sep 24Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Angela Rayner is the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A member leaves the Cabinet upon the qualifying announcement of their resignation, dismissal, removal, non-reappointment, or other formal cessation of Cabinet membership. A change of portfolio or position within the Cabinet alone does not count. If two or more members leave on the same calendar date and the Source Agencies do not establish a clear chronological order, the tied member markets settle according to the Contract's split-settlement provisions. If no eligible member leaves during the specified period, all member markets resolve to No. A temporary absence or leave where the member is expected to resume their Cabinet position does not count. Speculative or unconfirmed reports of a departure do not count. If the Prime Minister leaves office or the Cabinet is otherwise dissolved or wholly reconstituted before an individual member satisfies the Payout Criterion, all listed individual-member markets resolve to No.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?: Will Lisa Nandy be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?Kalshi95% NoOpen
Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?: Will Yvette Cooper be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?: Will Stephen Kinnock be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?: Will Wes Streeting be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?: Will Shabana Mahmood be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?Kalshi99% NoOpen
Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?: Will Miatta Fahnbulleh be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?Kalshi86% NoOpen
Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?: Will Pat McFadden be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?: Will Louise Haigh be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?: Will Jonathan Reynolds be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?Kalshi96% NoOpen
Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?: Will Lucy Powell be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?Kalshi96% NoOpen
Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?: Will Heidi Alexander be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?Kalshi95% NoOpen
Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?: Will John Healey be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?Kalshi81% NoOpen
Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?: Will Indeterminate be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?Kalshi94% NoOpen
Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?: Will Ed Miliband be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?Kalshi97% NoOpen
Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?: Will Douglas Alexander be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?: Will Bridget Phillipson be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?Kalshi96% NoOpen
Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?: Will Chris Bryant be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?Kalshi96% NoOpen
Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?: Will Baroness Smith of Basildon be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? Angela SmithKalshi98% NoOpen
Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?: Will Alex Norris be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?: Will Alan Campbell be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?: Will Anneliese Midgley be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?: Will Angela Eagle be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?Kalshi97% NoOpen

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As of Sep 29, 11:15 PM UTC