KalshiOpen

US defaults before 2029?: Will the US default on its debt by Dec 31, 2028?

No89%

Defaults11%

Price checked at Sep 30, 03:35 PM UTC

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24h volume$0

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread3%

ResolvesJan 1, 2029in 2 years

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

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As of Sep 30, 03:47 PM UTC