KalshiOpen

Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?: Will Pat McFadden be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?

No93%
Pat McFadden7%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread90%
ResolvesJan 8, 2035in 8 years

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 13Sep 18Sep 24Sep 30Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Pat McFadden formally holds the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity—as formally designated by the body or organization at which the position is held—is treated as formally holding the position; assumption of the role solely in an acting, interim, transitional, provisional, caretaker, pro tempore, or otherwise temporary capacity does not, by itself, satisfy the Payout Criterion. Andy Burnham is the holder at Issuance. A former holder who returns after Issuance is not disqualified solely on the basis of that prior service. If a person not listed here is first to formally hold the office after Issuance, every market resolves NO.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?: Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?Kalshi97% NoOpen
Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?: Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?Kalshi74% NoOpen
Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?: Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?Kalshi78% NoOpen
Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?: Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?Kalshi94% NoOpen
Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?: Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?Kalshi93% NoOpen
Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?: Will Richard Tice be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?Kalshi96% NoOpen
Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?: Will Jess Phillips be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?Kalshi97% NoOpen
Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?: Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?Kalshi97% NoOpen
Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?: Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?Kalshi97% NoOpen
Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?: Will Zia Yusuf be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?Kalshi96% NoOpen

Venue activity

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As of Sep 30, 05:49 PM UTC