Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 30, 2026?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 26, 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 25, 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 27, 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 22, 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 20, 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 24, 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 23, 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 28, 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will there be no next Grok model (4.7+) release by September 30, 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 29, 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Sep 30, 11:46 PM UTC