Will Matthew Garwood win the next Launceston mayoral election?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the City of Launceston as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).
Sourcehttps://www.tec.tas.gov.au/
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tim Walker win the next Launceston mayoral election? | Polymarket | 95% No | Open |
| Will Rose Diamond win the next Launceston mayoral election? | Polymarket | 94% No | Open |
| Will Paul Mallett win the next Launceston mayoral election? | Polymarket | 96% No | Open |
| Will Kyle Barrett win the next Launceston mayoral election? | Polymarket | 80% No | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Sep 29, 07:23 PM UTC