PolymarketResolvedPart of a cross-venue question →

Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% in September?

Yes100%

No0%

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread0%

ResolvesSep 30, 2026in 15 hours

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

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Comparable, not identical. The published resolution criteria and source are materially identical; the venues differ only in status (Polymarket delisted, Limitless resolved Yes), not in the question asked.

Polymarketthis market
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% in September?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
22 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 21, 12:20 AM UTC
LimitlessOpen →
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September: 4.90%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026 ).
2 holders · read Sep 23, 05:39 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.07% in September?	Polymarket	87% Yes	$653.9	—	—	Open
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% in September?	Polymarket	100% Yes	$284.5	—	—	Open
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% in September?	Polymarket	51% Yes	$28.9	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 9 days ago

Holders22

Held value—

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Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 42% · best ask 43%

Top holders

Dr.PNL108351300461347762626086378538666227708098792981226511738645946514941711276521
Started-with-20-USD45928869674248392585712518862165164527242893872297343690452323381909761828489
GuyFromTinder45928869674248392585712518862165164527242893872297343690452323381909761828489
Haradwaith108351300461347762626086378538666227708098792981226511738645946514941711276521
shoobadooba18108351300461347762626086378538666227708098792981226511738645946514941711276521

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As of Sep 29, 09:15 PM UTC