PolymarketOpen

Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in September?

No99%

Yes1%

Price checked at Sep 29, 10:40 PM UTC

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24h volume$1

7d volume$81.2

30d volume$2.4K

Liquidity$710.8

Spread2%

ResolvesSep 30, 2026in 13 hours

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in September?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% in September?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.18% in September?	Polymarket	99% No	$109.8	—	—	Open
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.21% in September?	Polymarket	99% No	$61	—	—	Open
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.15% in September?	Polymarket	99% No	$2	—	—	Open
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.24% in September?	Polymarket	99% No	$2	—	—	Open
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.09% in September?	Polymarket	99% No	$2	—	—	Open
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.12% in September?	Polymarket	99% No	$1	—	—	Open

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As of Sep 29, 10:59 PM UTC