Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in September?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.67% in September? | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.73% in September? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.61% in September? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.45% in September? | Polymarket | 98% No | Open |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.56% in September? | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.64% in September? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.51% in September? | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Sep 29, 07:22 PM UTC