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Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced?: Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-10-01T14:00:00.000Z? Before October 1, 2026

No96%
Before October 1, 20264%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread5%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Aug 26Sep 4Sep 12Sep 21Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before October 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that the Miguel Díaz-Canel will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation. Clarification (05/23/26): To clarify, Miguel Díaz-Canel currently holds two positions relevant to this market: First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of Cuba. For purposes of this contract, departure from either position will satisfy the Payout Criterion.

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As of Sep 29, 10:30 PM UTC