KalshiOpen

When will Google release Gemini 4?: Will Google release Gemini 4 before Dec 1, 2026?

Before Dec 1, 202689%

No11%

Price checked at Sep 29, 10:53 PM UTC

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24h volume$9

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread7%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Google releases Gemini 4 before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
When will Google release Gemini 4?: Will Google release Gemini 4 before Oct 1, 2026?	Kalshi	96% No	$5.3K	—	—	Open
When will Google release Gemini 4?: Will Google release Gemini 4 before Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	52% No	$1.8K	—	—	Open
When will Google release Gemini 4?: Will Google release Gemini 4 before Nov 15, 2026?	Kalshi	82% Before Nov 15, 2026	$80	—	—	Open
When will Google release Gemini 4?: Will Google release Gemini 4 before Nov 1, 2026?	Kalshi	89% Before Nov 1, 2026	$23.5	—	—	Open
When will Google release Gemini 4?: Will Google release Gemini 4 before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	92% Before Jan 1, 2027	$0	—	—	Open
When will Google release Gemini 4?: Will Google release Gemini 4 before Dec 15, 2026?	Kalshi	83% Before Dec 15, 2026	$0	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 3 hours ago

Holders—

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

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As of Sep 29, 10:58 PM UTC