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European Central Bank rate decision in October: Will the European Central Bank Cut more than 25bps at the October ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

No97%
Cut more than 25bps3%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
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Spread22%
ResolvesOct 29, 2026in 30 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Aug 29Sep 6Sep 14Sep 22Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the European Central Bank takes the action of Cut more than 25bps at October ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).

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As of Sep 29, 11:26 PM UTC