When will Trump's next address to the nation be?: Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Jan 1, 2027?
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of the publication date. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. An “address to the nation” means a prepared presidential speech that at least four of the Associated Press, Reuters, Bloomberg News, ABC, CBS, NBC, and The New York Times contemporaneously describe as an “address to the nation,” “national address,” “address to the American people,” or explicitly equivalent. At least two of ABC, CBS, and NBC must televise the speech nationwide, beginning within 60 seconds of its initial public transmission and continuing through the final prepared words. The speech may be delivered live or prerecorded. Examples include an update on Operation Epic Fury (4/1/26) and a year-end address on the economy and administration’s record (12/17/25). The examples are illustrative only; qualification is determined solely by the definition above. A qualifying description must be published after the initial public transmission begins and must affirm that the address is underway or occurred. Advance descriptions of a planned speech do NOT qualify. For deadline purposes, an address occurs when its initial public transmission begins. A strike can resolve Yes only if the transmission begins and all four qualifying descriptions are published before that strike date. Required network carriage may continue through the final prepared words after the strike date, but must be verified before determination.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.Venue activity
Read from the venue 8 hours agoDiscussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
As of Sep 30, 06:14 AM UTC