US trade deficit for 2029: Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2029 be above $1.0 trillion?
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2029 is strictly above $1.0 trillion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis. It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data. Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit. For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion. Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2029. Subsequent annual revisions will not be considered.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| US trade deficit for 2029: Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2029 be above $700 billion? | Kalshi | 97% Above $700 billion | Open |
| US trade deficit for 2029: Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2029 be above $900 billion? | Kalshi | 72% Above $900 billion | Open |
| US trade deficit for 2029: Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2029 be above $500 billion? | Kalshi | 97% Above $500 billion | Open |
| US trade deficit for 2029: Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2029 be above $800 billion? | Kalshi | 92% Above $800 billion | Open |
| US trade deficit for 2029: Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2029 be above $600 billion? | Kalshi | 97% Above $600 billion | Open |
| US trade deficit for 2029: Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2029 be above $1.1 trillion? | Kalshi | 70% No | Open |
| US trade deficit for 2029: Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2029 be above $1.2 trillion? | Kalshi | 80% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue this minuteDiscussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
As of Sep 30, 10:47 AM UTC