KalshiOpen

Will Trump rename any ocean before October? Yes

No94%
Yes6%

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ResolvesOct 8, 2026in 9 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Aug 27Sep 5Sep 13Sep 21Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Donald Trump has taken any signed executive action renaming any ocean before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary. Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included. Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify. The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration. Ocean means the Atlantic, Pacific, Indian, Arctic, or Southern Ocean. The action must adopt or direct adoption of a different name for United States official use; renaming only a gulf, sea, bay, or lake does not qualify. An action covering only the portion of an ocean within United States jurisdiction qualifies. Adoption by other countries or an international body is not required.

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As of Sep 29, 11:49 PM UTC