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How many U.S. visas will be revoked in 2026?: Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 150000 in calendar year 2026? At least 150,000

At least 150,00080%
No21%

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7d volume—
30d volume—
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Spread9%
ResolvesApr 1, 2027in 6 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State is at least 150,000 in calendar year 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The count is the State Department's total visa revocations across all visa categories and grounds during calendar year 2026, ending before January 1, 2027. Visa refusals, expirations, and planned revocations do not count. The first official full-year total is used; partial-year figures and totals spanning 2025 and 2026 are not the full-year total. If the total is reported as a range or bound, only outcomes necessarily established by that figure can be determined.

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As of Sep 30, 12:28 PM UTC