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Will a Yosemite land deal with Kingsbarn be announced? Yes

No65%
Yes35%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread8%
ResolvesJan 8, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 23Sep 30Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the U.S. Department of the Interior or the U.S. National Park Service announces an agreement to transfer federal land within Yosemite National Park or an easement over that land to Kingsbarn Realty Capital or an entity it controls in exchange for land before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An official announcement that the agency has agreed to the exchange counts, even if signing, closing, or implementation will occur later. Official signing or issuance of the exchange agreement by authorized agency officials also counts as an announcement. Either a transfer of land ownership or the grant of an easement qualifies. The land must be federally owned and within Yosemite National Park at Issuance. A proposal, ongoing negotiations, an appraisal, environmental review, or a statement that an exchange is being considered does not count. An announcement by Kingsbarn alone does not count. The announcement date governs, not the date of conveyance, recordation, or construction.

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As of Sep 30, 06:12 AM UTC