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Quebec general election: 3rd place: Will Parti Québécois finish 3rd in the 2026 Quebec general election?

No98%
Parti Québécois2%

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ResolvesNov 5, 2026next month

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 22Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Parti Québécois finishes in 3rd place in the 2026 Quebec general election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on province-wide certified valid-vote count or percentage, not seats won In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities), rounded down. If no listed party is tied for third and an unlisted party finishes third, every named market resolves NO. Parties that withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. Resolution uses the final certified result from Élections Québec, not the preliminary election-night count. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve NO.

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As of Sep 29, 11:54 PM UTC