PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will Steve Hilton win Fresno County in the California governor race in 2026?

Yes60%

No41%

Price checked at Sep 29, 10:38 PM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$20.4K

Spread1%

ResolvesNov 3, 2026next month

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate that receives the most valid votes from Fresno County in the general election for Governor of California, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Fresno County.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. Kalshi lists an earlier settlement time and permits accelerated determination after media consensus; Polymarket specifies vote-count ranking, tie-breaking, and a March 31, 2027 fallback based on official or credible reporting. These are resolution-rule differences, not differences in the event being asked.

KalshiOpen →
California Governor: which counties will Steve Hilton win?: Will Steve Hilton win Fresno County?
If Steve Hilton wins the 2026 California gubernatorial general election in Fresno County, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
read Sep 29, 09:55 PM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Will Steve Hilton win Fresno County in the California governor race in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the candidate that receives the most valid votes from Fresno County in the general election for Governor of California, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Fresno County.
24 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 22, 05:06 AM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Xavier Becerra win Fresno County in the California governor race in 2026?	Polymarket	67% No	$89.4	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 8 days ago

Holders24

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

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Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 32% · best ask 34%

Top holders

gambler92598249277776725839139501383954633417065884251343303076146424694613526466911979
DuneMentat56851451034654257766844575033345624194687270104445707357701761005308749868529
0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296656851451034654257766844575033345624194687270104445707357701761005308749868529
Odd-Relish98249277776725839139501383954633417065884251343303076146424694613526466911979
chessplayer98249277776725839139501383954633417065884251343303076146424694613526466911979

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As of Sep 29, 11:08 PM UTC