PolymarketOpen

Will September 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?

Yes98%
No2%

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24h volume$4
7d volume$4
30d volume$1.2K
Liquidity$404.5
Spread2%
ResolvesOct 1, 2026in 7 hours

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 23Sep 30Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record. Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will September 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?Polymarket98% NoOpen
Will September 2026 be the 4th or lower on record?Polymarket99% NoOpen
Will September 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?Polymarket99% NoOpen

Venue activity

Holders13
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments0

Top holders

  • Danny283847490191103098431538625662358426528112270187963555949967860086919115823896308853364462
  • 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296652480472512874807335340292728429880222794488204652347528325078591887238309915
  • Corny-Hyphenation103098431538625662358426528112270187963555949967860086919115823896308853364462
  • youtube-trader52480472512874807335340292728429880222794488204652347528325078591887238309915
  • romanew-1-new52480472512874807335340292728429880222794488204652347528325078591887238309915

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • BUY4%$0.78 days ago
  • BUY4%$1.78 days ago
  • BUY3%$1.48 days ago
  • BUY98%$61.58 days ago
  • BUY95%$28.514 days ago
  • BUY94%$179.414 days ago

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As of Sep 30, 08:53 PM UTC