Will Core PCE MoM be 0.0% in August?
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Core PCE MoM be 0.1% in August? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will Core PCE MoM be -0.1% or less in August? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in August? | Polymarket | 69% Yes | Open |
| Will Core PCE MoM be 0.5% or more in August? | Polymarket | 97% No | Open |
| Will Core PCE MoM be 0.4% in August? | Polymarket | 96% No | Open |
| Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in August? | Polymarket | 73% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue this minuteDiscussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
As of Sep 29, 11:29 PM UTC