PolymarketResolved

Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?

No100%
Yes0%

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This market has settled. The prices shown are final.
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24h volume$222.3
7d volume$998.3
30d volume$4.3K
Liquidity$0
Spread0%
ResolvesOct 1, 202616 hours ago

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?Polymarket98% NoOpen

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As of Oct 1, 08:13 PM UTC