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Israeli forces enter Tyre by September 30?

No99%
Yes1%

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24h volume$2
7d volume$132
30d volume$1.9K
Liquidity$17.5K
Spread1%
ResolvesSep 30, 2026in 4 hours

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Tyre in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Tyre will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.

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As of Sep 30, 04:48 PM UTC