Will AfD be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?
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Probability history
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Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government formed after the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Landtag elects the Minister-President. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Minister-President. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the State Government of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will CDU be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government? | Polymarket | 97% No | Open |
| Will SPD be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government? | Polymarket | 96% Yes | Open |
| Will FW be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government? | Polymarket | 95% No | Open |
| Will BSW be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government? | Polymarket | 97% No | Open |
| Will Linke be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government? | Polymarket | 89% Yes | Open |
| Will Grüne be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government? | Polymarket | 84% Yes | Open |
| Will FDP be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government? | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
Venue activity
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1 comment
From Polymarket's own thread- vinii · 4 days ago
Interesting
As of Sep 30, 02:06 AM UTC