PolymarketOpen

Will AfD be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?

No97%
Yes3%

Price checked at

Trade
Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country →
Opens the venue in a new tab, through Predxy.
24h volume$0.6
7d volume$731.1
30d volume$1.1K
Liquidity$11.2K
Spread2%
ResolvesSep 21, 20269 days ago

Probability history

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 23Sep 30Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government formed after the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Landtag elects the Minister-President. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Minister-President. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the State Government of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

Other legs of this event

Venue activity

Holders—
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments1

Discussion on Predxy

Sign in to join the discussion.

Nobody has said anything here yet.

1 comment

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • vinii · 4 days ago

    Interesting

As of Sep 30, 02:06 AM UTC