Will BSW be in the next Berlin state government?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will AfD be in the next Berlin state government? | Polymarket | 98% No | Open |
| Will Grüne be in the next Berlin state government? | Polymarket | 92% Yes | Open |
| Will FDP be in the next Berlin state government? | Polymarket | 97% No | Open |
| Will FW be in the next Berlin state government? | Polymarket | 98% No | Open |
| Will CDU be in the next Berlin state government? | Polymarket | 77% No | Open |
| Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government? | Polymarket | 90% Yes | Open |
| Will Linke be in the next Berlin state government? | Polymarket | 81% Yes | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Sep 29, 11:49 PM UTC