Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) be in the next Swedish government? | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
| Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? | Polymarket | 75% Yes | Open |
| Will the Christian Democrats (KD) be in the next Swedish government? | Polymarket | 76% No | Open |
| Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government? | Polymarket | 85% No | Open |
| Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government? | Polymarket | 64% Yes | Open |
| Will the Moderate Party (M) be in the next Swedish government? | Polymarket | 79% No | Open |
| Will the Liberals (L) be in the next Swedish government? | Polymarket | 75% No | Open |
| Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government? | Polymarket | 93% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 2 days agoBest bid 50% · best ask 52%
Top holders
- Devoted-Boatload6855369275302724032699287639932798932817159655538759050905665164490734254134
- Roro2235573951447477510451617121733947906005834601755537842760470563507737519073575
- WikLipinG35573951447477510451617121733947906005834601755537842760470563507737519073575
- DuneMentat6855369275302724032699287639932798932817159655538759050905665164490734254134
- oplix35573951447477510451617121733947906005834601755537842760470563507737519073575
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Discussion on Predxy
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15 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- vinii · 2 days ago
- TheSwedishWolf · 3 days ago
- TheSwedishWolf · 3 days ago
Not after the latest scandals. Most likely they will be outside the government this election.
- vinii · 4 days ago
V has the cards if they refuse is over
- vinii · 4 days ago
Im betting or a goverment with V or snap elections/ no deal by january 31
- vinii · 4 days ago
V in the goverment or snap elections.
- muppet-master · 4 days ago
Ok, I did not know that, I think they could/should demand more being kingmaker/vågmästare. V won't agree to that. Their members voted to not let a S government through without getting any V ministers. I think that V leadership can't break that since it would be to piss their members in their faces.
- OllonPiercing · 4 days ago
The center party has been clear about them being willing to allow an S or S + MP coalition. If V actually agrees on not being in government, they might demand C not being in it either, which C might agree to.
- muppet-master · 5 days ago
Spoiler: The Center Party (C) is the Kkngmaker/vågmästare party. If C dont get into S governent then they just switch to M government. 100% guaranteed C will be in goverment.
- Profitable-Bartender · 6 days ago
Why yuo put no on social demokrats but yes on the left party?
- vinii · 8 days ago
Smart
- OllonPiercing · 8 days ago
🤫
- TheSwedishWolf · 8 days ago
This market looks good on the outside. But if you look at the facts the market require the listed party to have a government by 31th of January of 2027. Which is in 133 days it took the old socialdemokrats government in 2018 134 days. This situation is also more complex.
- OllonPiercing · 10 days ago
why
- vinii · 11 days ago
I want more No
As of Sep 29, 11:15 PM UTC