PolymarketOpen

Lula participates in debate before first round?

No65%

Yes35%

Price checked at Sep 29, 10:10 PM UTC

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24h volume$6.1K

7d volume$11.5K

30d volume$19.2K

Liquidity$2.5K

Spread2%

ResolvesOct 3, 2026in 4 days

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) participates in a televised Brazilian presidential debate by October 3, 2026, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, Lula must speak at least once in a debate with at least one other registered Brazilian presidential candidate present, televised live. Virtual live participation will qualify. Prerecorded appearances will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the debate, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Venue activity

Read from the venue 4 days ago

Holders69

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments5

Best bid 40% · best ask 62%

Top holders

spendingmoney105359734841846745046435360654539987671887183049060832689158282685936168310577
RVGym40975707779155764849102791492647218336463248414936908012401419510958217040944
burityps40975707779155764849102791492647218336463248414936908012401419510958217040944
disputequant40975707779155764849102791492647218336463248414936908012401419510958217040944
Kaz3105359734841846745046435360654539987671887183049060832689158282685936168310577

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

BUY63%$1425 days ago
BUY63%$2.65 days ago
BUY50%$1405 days ago
SELL51%$20.85 days ago
BUY38%$1.95 days ago
SELL63%$35.95 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.

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5 comments

From Polymarket's own thread

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.

Prize-Maybe · 5 days ago
Folha de SP: "Avanço de Flávio Bolsonaro faz Lula reavaliar estratégia, e presidente deve ir a debate da Globo"
K1KE · last month
Probablemente es un "NO", a Lula no le conviene ir a algún debate cuando tiene cerca de un 40% de intención de voto, ademas que ir a un debate lo debilita dado que es el unico candidato directo de la izquierda y el es un candidato oficialista.
BolsoDugnista · last month
certeza q n
h0ip0ll0i · last month
pq no mercado do flavio usaram a foto oficial e nesse uma foto do lula chorando? que merda hein
LiquidatedDegen · last month
Please fill me some Nos

As of Sep 29, 10:28 PM UTC