Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 19 and October 25, 2026?
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Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 21 and September 27, 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 14 and September 20, 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? | Polymarket | 78% No | Open |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026? | Polymarket | 91% No | Open |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 28 and October 4, 2026? | Polymarket | 93% No | Open |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026? | Polymarket | 80% No | Open |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026? | Polymarket | 77% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 19 hours agoBest bid 14% · best ask 14%
Top holders
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b129666523890601290053850144787776746115667824114433988690429357847635507141826754
- balthazar101355728346408966310180209813908697677533581003124665315104091831793989903453
- molodoyy101355728346408966310180209813908697677533581003124665315104091831793989903453
- dedidanc6523890601290053850144787776746115667824114433988690429357847635507141826754
- George.Smiley101355728346408966310180209813908697677533581003124665315104091831793989903453
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL85%$42.7yesterday
- BUY12%$1.3yesterday
- BUY13%$5yesterday
- BUY13%$1.2yesterday
- BUY12%$12.7yesterday
- BUY87%$8.7yesterday
Discussion on Predxy
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As of Sep 29, 08:34 PM UTC