PolymarketOpen

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 19 and October 25, 2026?

No89%
Yes11%

Price checked at

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24h volume$899.2
7d volume$2.1K
30d volume$3.5K
Liquidity$3.4K
Spread2%
ResolvesOct 25, 2026in 26 days

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Other legs of this event

Venue activity

Holders30
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments0

Best bid 14% · best ask 14%

Top holders

  • 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b129666523890601290053850144787776746115667824114433988690429357847635507141826754
  • balthazar101355728346408966310180209813908697677533581003124665315104091831793989903453
  • molodoyy101355728346408966310180209813908697677533581003124665315104091831793989903453
  • dedidanc6523890601290053850144787776746115667824114433988690429357847635507141826754
  • George.Smiley101355728346408966310180209813908697677533581003124665315104091831793989903453

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • SELL85%$42.7yesterday
  • BUY12%$1.3yesterday
  • BUY13%$5yesterday
  • BUY13%$1.2yesterday
  • BUY12%$12.7yesterday
  • BUY87%$8.7yesterday

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As of Sep 29, 08:34 PM UTC