Will Renan win the second-most votes in the 2026 Alagoas Senate election?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandre Fleming win the second-most votes in the 2026 Alagoas Senate election? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will Davi Davino Filho win the second-most votes in the 2026 Alagoas Senate election? | Polymarket | 93% No | Open |
| Will Dr. Wanderley win the second-most votes in the 2026 Alagoas Senate election? | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
| Will Mariedson win the second-most votes in the 2026 Alagoas Senate election? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will Arthur Lira win the second-most votes in the 2026 Alagoas Senate election? | Polymarket | 60% No | Open |
| Will Marina JHC win the second-most votes in the 2026 Alagoas Senate election? | Polymarket | 68% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 8 days agoBest bid 68% · best ask 71%
Top holders
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b129665684606908215254087138520663567043930087018849192695363263714596467341643032
- balthazar6301567226287798736035738032517192349917751212935187004223903537569145795246
- YoungAlphaGoat6301567226287798736035738032517192349917751212935187004223903537569145795246
- Haradwaith6301567226287798736035738032517192349917751212935187004223903537569145795246
- BOOST2506301567226287798736035738032517192349917751212935187004223903537569145795246
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- BUY68%$44.48 days ago
- SELL32%$19.28 days ago
- BUY66%$56.48 days ago
- SELL34%$1.714 days ago
- SELL38%$515 days ago
- SELL61%$12.216 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
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As of Sep 29, 10:21 PM UTC