Will Renan Filho win the 2026 Alagoas gubernatorial election?
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Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
The Alagoas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lenilda Luna win the 2026 Alagoas gubernatorial election? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will Márcio Jambo win the 2026 Alagoas gubernatorial election? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will JHC win the 2026 Alagoas gubernatorial election? | Polymarket | 63% Yes | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 8 days agoBest bid 35% · best ask 44%
Top holders
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296635746034657852691565220607695387068684293771599416285866917327434319345471226
- archaic19398003781214747755336203662874075198052370427619047685093441922391567014555
- LocalHunter35746034657852691565220607695387068684293771599416285866917327434319345471226
- lava-lava19398003781214747755336203662874075198052370427619047685093441922391567014555
- Seeking-Alpha0119398003781214747755336203662874075198052370427619047685093441922391567014555
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL38%$1.38 days ago
- BUY43%$34.610 days ago
- BUY54%$10.810 days ago
- BUY41%$8.210 days ago
- BUY62%$4.112 days ago
- SELL65%$9.817 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
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1 comment
From Polymarket's own thread- petersohn · 14 days ago
Voces tem certeza que JHC é tao favorito assim? Pelas pesquisas parece bem disputado
As of Sep 29, 10:23 PM UTC