PolymarketOpen

Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026?

No96%
Yes4%

Price checked at

Trade
Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country →
Opens the venue in a new tab, through Predxy.
24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$650.1
Spread2%
ResolvesOct 1, 2026tomorrow

Probability history

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 23Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Z.ai's next GLM model (5.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be part of Z.ai's core GLM series, have a name or model identifier that includes "GLM," and be designated as a version greater than 5.3, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version greater than 5.3 named in the same manner as GLM-5.2 or GLM-5.3 would qualify, including versions that skip numbers, such as GLM-5.5 or GLM-6, while models with a version designation of 5.3 or below, or derivative models not positioned as the next flagship GLM release, such as GLM-5.3-Turbo, will not qualify. Staged rollouts of a model already publicly accessible before market creation, such as the open-weight or API release of GLM-5.3, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Z.ai as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Z.ai, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?Polymarket84% YesOpen
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 15, 2026?Polymarket70% NoOpen

Venue activity

Holders50
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments0

Best bid 94% · best ask 97%

Top holders

  • Milksheen10904923961352057527557696467088328554990164858614180174274452482784516412201
  • User98311434569062681653984414087808790905999379339042635120376111498492207152590033
  • taerv53411434569062681653984414087808790905999379339042635120376111498492207152590033
  • KimchiCapital10904923961352057527557696467088328554990164858614180174274452482784516412201
  • pragmat1sm10904923961352057527557696467088328554990164858614180174274452482784516412201

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • SELL5%$9.85 days ago
  • SELL94%$4.75 days ago
  • BUY94%$45.97 days ago
  • SELL91%$4.18 days ago
  • SELL5%$10.18 days ago
  • SELL10%$28 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

Sign in to join the discussion.

Nobody has said anything here yet.

As of Sep 29, 11:15 PM UTC