Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | Polymarket | 82% No | Open |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027? | Polymarket | 78% No | Open |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027? | Polymarket | 66% No | Open |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027? | Polymarket | 54% Yes | Open |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue this minuteDiscussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
19 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- realyly · 8 days ago
however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- SIMOMEGA · last month
point of your comment?
- tiongbu · 2 months ago
I will be smiling but you will be crying
- DontTrustMe · 2 months ago
You are so mysterious and so cool bro. 🥵
- shomski · 2 months ago
you will be smiling on tuesday
- DontTrustMe · 2 months ago
I don't think that WSJ article changes anything. There is no confirmation inside it that a merger will definitely happen. And if one was to ever happen, the article makes it clear that the Chinese side of Tesla's operations would first need to be fully separated or sold. 2026 is in all likelihood a too short timeframe for this to happen.
- DontTrustMe · 2 months ago
Are you talking about that: "The new shares, potentially worth an additional $600 billion or more, only vest if SpaceX hits two conditions: its top market capitalization milestone of $7.5 trillion, and the creation of a permanent human colony on Mars with at least one million inhabitants. " In the short-term (i.e. 2026), it's irrelevant imo. And implying that you couldn't properly manage them both as they were separated is not a very compelling/flattering argument that you would want to push yourself.
- Evil-Rim · 2 months ago
Wouldn't he want both the entities to merge and hopefully his tranches of stocks also vest(from the 1 Trillion that was given last year). I agree on risk of combined entity going down faster. But he coudl sell with the vision that he is managing them together as opposed to splitting his focus.
- SIMOMEGA · 2 months ago
how can September 30 go up by 1% while December goes down 1 lol
- DontTrustMe · 3 months ago
Could happen at some point in the future, but in the short-term, won't happen. I can think of three main reasons: 1) Tesla has always been overvalued (340x PE ratio / 200x forward PE as of right now) and Elon knows that. Tesla stock would first need to go down significantly for this to really make sense. 2) Investors tend to dislike conglomerates and prefer "pure players". That's why carve-out IPOs happen regularly. In other words, Tesla and SpaceX merged together could potentially be worth less than Tesla and SpaceX separated. 3) It would significantly increase Musk's own concentration risk. Considering all the political attacks against him, it's probably smart for him to not tie all his wealth and responsibilities into one single legal entity.
- SIMOMEGA · 3 months ago
what are the downsides of a merge then?
- ProofOfWork · 3 months ago
He would gain control.
- ProofOfWork · 3 months ago
For control over Tesla. If he buys Tesla with SpaceX, he would get ~50% voting control
- SIMOMEGA · 3 months ago
dont see how yes can be so high here, why would he merge the 2?
- SIMOMEGA · 3 months ago
How?
- BeyondAverage4ck · 4 months ago
The competitive landscape has shifted since this opened
- Virtual-Queen · 7 months ago
Sounds not likely. Elon can only lose by doing that.
- Front-Morbidity · 8 months ago
G Wells
- Front-Morbidity · 8 months ago
H
As of Sep 29, 07:25 PM UTC