Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
The same question elsewhere
2 venues carry it- Polymarketthis market
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
144 holders · 18 comments · read Sep 25, 11:42 AM UTC
- PredictFunOpen →
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
read Sep 29, 08:11 PM UTC
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | Polymarket | 53% No | Open |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | Polymarket | 85% No | Open |
| Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026? | Polymarket | 93% Yes | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 4 days agoBest bid 23% · best ask 24%
Top holders
- qmmar68078935114524021997910962679757987638473539130247054589847481924647902196800
- InterestingUser12841507622598475897320243561366303437989820404961007974083761220828672277882
- BrownBees68078935114524021997910962679757987638473539130247054589847481924647902196800
- BettingDave12841507622598475897320243561366303437989820404961007974083761220828672277882
- Rumpelstiltskin12841507622598475897320243561366303437989820404961007974083761220828672277882
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL76%$8.65 days ago
- SELL76%$4.45 days ago
- SELL76%$8.75 days ago
- BUY25%$25 days ago
- SELL74%$7.45 days ago
- SELL73%$7.35 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
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Nobody has said anything here yet.
21 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- arrakis42 · 2 days ago
Yeah that's why you have another account maxing out on No.. you want people to believe Yes so you can buy a more asymetrial No. If you were this confident why don't go all in on Yes? Why just 5 shares.
- Kelugo · 3 days ago
It will be released on oct first
- George.Smiley · 8 days ago
October 15 or 22nd
- hidv · 8 days ago
Not just the 9to5google report.. it's in google's shareholder notes! Much more like November-December than October.
- Partial-Somewhere · 18 days ago
hirefortuna already uses models not out
- arrakis42 · 21 days ago
@ChefSlick Because 75% is way too high for October. This is an independent assessment site that scooped and analyzed all the available rumors online and they conclude that the model is still training and that : "Gemini 4 should launch in November or December.”. 9to5google com/2026/07/26/google-gemini-4-teases/
- arrakis42 · 21 days ago
This market doesnt make any sense!
- Never-KYS · last month
I guess it's time boys
- Mikelious · 3 months ago
It's coming home 17th of July lets goooo
- Mikelious · 3 months ago
Gemini 3.5 pro just announced as "coming soon" on Google Deep Mind. Gemini 4 is inevitably going to release with it as per credible leakers.
- noniqque · 4 months ago
we should just short google bro
- 418Imateapot · 5 months ago
Yes.
- noniqque · 5 months ago
are prediction markets still extremely inefficient or am I extremely dumb
- AaAbBbCcCdDdEeEFfF · 8 months ago
Was spotted in Antigravity [link removed]
- AaAbBbCcCdDdEeEFfF · 8 months ago
Guys they're already A/B testing Gemini 4.0 [link removed]
- George.Smiley · 9 months ago
A hedge, probably won't pay out but 6 months is a long time
- Mammoth-Fratricide · 9 months ago
Did you buy yes for funsies
- traderinchief · 9 months ago
Odds are ridiculously high, there's no chance this happens. 3.0 is not even out of preview yet and there were 10 months between 2.0 and 3.0
- George.Smiley · 10 months ago
I know that. It's surprising though that we got a market for 4.0 before 3.5 given that Google does releases in 0.5 increments
- ZynBaby · 10 months ago
if u read the rules this is gemini 4.0 and a 4.0 flash market
As of Sep 29, 11:28 PM UTC