No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting? | Polymarket | 68% No | Open |
| Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the November 2026 meeting? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the November 2026 meeting? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 5 days agoBest bid 71% · best ask 72%
Top holders
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296667502822436195339875934457509445653170802597242572001968626531806933336110828
- firegold56315003739781752063489392031417674810924249132773013493793078191646160955893
- 0xd0d90cd53993e3fd64d27662db009adc6e1e30f256315003739781752063489392031417674810924249132773013493793078191646160955893
- balabalababalabala56315003739781752063489392031417674810924249132773013493793078191646160955893
- spacexstar56315003739781752063489392031417674810924249132773013493793078191646160955893
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL27%$0.56 days ago
- BUY28%$2.87 days ago
- BUY28%$2.87 days ago
- BUY28%$3.37 days ago
- BUY28%$5.67 days ago
- SELL72%$14.47 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
As of Sep 29, 10:27 PM UTC