Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

No97%
Yes3%

Price checked at

Trade
Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country →
Opens the venue in a new tab, through Predxy.
24h volume$5.7K
7d volume$55.3K
30d volume$541.5K
Liquidity$25.9K
Spread1%
ResolvesOct 1, 2026tomorrow

Probability history

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 23Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. Resolution criteria have not been compared by a person yet. Venues may settle this question on different sources or dates.
  • Polymarketthis market

    Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

    356 holders · 154 comments · read Sep 21, 06:40 PM UTC

  • LimitlessOpen →

    US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...: September 30

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

    0 holders · read Sep 29, 11:09 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Polymarket77% NoOpen

Venue activity

Holders356
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments188

Best bid 87% · best ask 88%

Top holders

  • gkeqd68003608521015222679268138757769131071496782683879354114198876947977145147842
  • hosoon12354535939936252494990237723579988336237910336281008291808351435211825298252708
  • LJa7io23MCv954j54535939936252494990237723579988336237910336281008291808351435211825298252708
  • HerrieDavis68003608521015222679268138757769131071496782683879354114198876947977145147842
  • Wiggerstani54535939936252494990237723579988336237910336281008291808351435211825298252708

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • SELL12%$188 days ago
  • BUY88%$29.58 days ago
  • BUY88%$308 days ago
  • SELL86%$132.78 days ago
  • SELL11%$0.38 days ago
  • BUY12%$1.88 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

Sign in to join the discussion.

Nobody has said anything here yet.

188 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • Johan-Cruijff · 10 days ago

    Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: Iran and Oman reached an understanding regarding determining a safe passage route in the Strait of Hormuz

  • Wise-Hawk · 13 days ago

    the deal that was supposed to land in september is down to 6 with october at 40, the fade's been on polybro scope all month, the market's finally listening

  • higinvest · 14 days ago

  • LevantLeverage · 15 days ago

    The end of a legend, i will miss you Arman...

  • LevantLeverage · 16 days ago

    Arman....

  • WhaleWatch-39938 · 16 days ago

    LJa7io23MCv954j, a top earner, locked in $19,745.06 on September 30 with outcome No. That's serious skin in the game. What do they see that you don't?

  • MEPP · 16 days ago

    The Minister of Energy of Oman said that the Strait of Hormuz will probably be opened and the current situation will be short-term.

  • WhaleWatch-48450 · 16 days ago

    Valen9 currently holds $10,452.62 on September 14 with outcome Yes. One of the largest positions in this market. What do they know?

  • WhaleWatch-81686 · 16 days ago

    Valen9 currently holds $10,452.62 on September 14 with outcome Yes. One of the largest positions in this market. What do they know?

  • Raskell · 16 days ago

    Don't you have to quit Polymarket for the 5th time?

  • iForgor · 16 days ago

    Well well well..

  • WhaleWatch-99864 · 16 days ago

    Valen9 currently holds $10,452.62 on September 14 with outcome Yes. One of the largest positions in this market. What do they know?

  • LEGENDARY101 · 16 days ago

    Knew it wouldn't happen. There was never any confirmation from Oman

  • MEPP · 16 days ago

    court jesters on Y

  • MEPP · 16 days ago

    nop

  • MrMelonHead · 16 days ago

    As expected, Trump called it off.

  • JMSHZMBR988115 · 16 days ago

    Listen to me when I it won’t 😁

  • GammaSqueeze1234 · 16 days ago

    postponed?

  • Avitz33 · 16 days ago

    That market was one hell of a ride

  • Avitz33 · 16 days ago

    lol

As of Sep 29, 11:28 PM UTC