PolymarketOpen

Leopold Aschenbrenner charged in 2026?

No95%

Yes5%

Price checked at Sep 30, 08:13 AM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$2.3K

Spread2%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Leopold Aschenbrenner charged by December 31, 2027?	Polymarket	66% No	—	—	—	Open
Leopold Aschenbrenner charged by June 30, 2027?	Polymarket	92% No	—	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 3 days ago

Holders22

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 95% · best ask 96%

Top holders

Brokie8346617709293084669057280784437728466621460601338487088862281949781579159067
bosshog13929681014357035589474677622204594116561930188260195308537366427104051358764
0x124e0c267df00ebc350198c73e1e71f26a10a8a913929681014357035589474677622204594116561930188260195308537366427104051358764
Talophex13929681014357035589474677622204594116561930188260195308537366427104051358764
usdt3188346617709293084669057280784437728466621460601338487088862281949781579159067

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

SELL5%$0.34 days ago
SELL5%$14 days ago
BUY94%$2324 days ago
BUY93%$18.64 days ago
BUY92%$55.24 days ago
BUY8%$1.69 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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As of Sep 30, 08:23 AM UTC