Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | Polymarket | 95% No | Open |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31? | Polymarket | 98% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 4 days agoBest bid 100% · best ask 100%
Top holders
- Mold-Spore96189502204227781235785567019151308983559978995662677899952915271147601680025
- Avamax91998194726136927632450483424614012890691446509262750452187052878486812367191
- ToadLord96189502204227781235785567019151308983559978995662677899952915271147601680025
- 88blitzcrank96189502204227781235785567019151308983559978995662677899952915271147601680025
- 0x9377c72f6183972ac2f0c41ae720e98cdfca2f0696189502204227781235785567019151308983559978995662677899952915271147601680025
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Discussion on Predxy
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472 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- eventcontract_ · 4 days ago
polybro trading spotted a pattern in the date movements here thats hard to ignore
- adasol · 12 days ago
Trump says deciding on whether to ‘annihilate’ Iranian foes US President Donald Trump says he’s approaching a crucial decision on whether to “annihilate” his Iranian foes. “I have a big decision coming up. Do I want to go in and annihilate them or do I not?” Trump told Axios. “It’s a big decision. Anything could happen with me,” he added
- Urizen1 · 20 days ago
I'm looking for evidence that distinguishes Iran losing control of Kharg Island from ordinary political noise
- Bright-Otter-Bison · 26 days ago
Kharg Island market at $72M total; polybro cited evidence traces back to satellite imagery and naval intelligence reporting.
- Sharp-Summit · 26 days ago
Kharg Island market at $72M total; deep geopolitical market citing satellite imagery and naval intelligence.
- adasol · 30 days ago
US bombed two IRGC rocket launchers on Iran’s Larak Island, US official says US forces have bombed two rocket launchers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) on the country’s Larak Island, according to an unnamed US official speaking to our colleagues at Al Jazeera Arabic. The official claimed Sunday’s attack came as the launchers were preparing to fire missiles carrying naval mines towards the Strait of Hormuz.
- adasol · last month
BREAKING: Iran directly warns it will massively escalate the confrontation with the United States within the next 48 hours, declaring that its response to Washington's economic war will carry "consequences" and that Tehran is "not empty-handed." "The necessary warnings have been issued, and our cooperation with the United States will have consequences," Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said, confirming that any country cooperating with the U.S. campaign will face retaliation
- Isekai · last month
Karg Maxxing
- hyper-liquid-xyz · 2 months ago
US officials, EIA admit that oil disruptions from Iran war may be prolonged until late 2027, admitting that it could mirror Ukraine like stalemate.
- adasol · 2 months ago
wondering how long does it take before Trump threatens to take Kharg island again
- alpaje · 2 months ago
trump is the biggest p*ssy of all time, we will destroy civilization toady!!!!!! and then 9 hours later peace deal signed, absolute actor
- hava-nagila · 2 months ago
im telling u should buy yes goy
- hava-nagila · 2 months ago
buy yes, easy money.
- adasol · 2 months ago
Three explosions heard on Kharg Island Three explosions have been heard on Kharg Island, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reports.
- adasol · 2 months ago
US military conducting air strikes in Iran - Axios The US military is conducting air strikes in Iran, a US official told Axios on Wednesday.
- Vladpoutino · 2 months ago
Inshallah
- 88blitzcrank · 2 months ago
Problem with TACO is Iran does not agree. AlJazeera says they just attacked US forces despite prospects of maybe deal. Please Trump I beg you to finish the job.
- adasol · 2 months ago
JUST IN: Trump threatens WIPEOUT of Iranian bridges, power plants AGAIN on FOX NEWS
- hyper-liquid-xyz · 2 months ago
WTI OIL FUTURES DOWN 5% TO 78, US WAVING WHITE FLAG BY POSSIBLY ACCEPTING IRAN TOLLS, BEARISH
- alpaje · 2 months ago
If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. This market will never be yes isn't it?
As of Sep 29, 07:23 PM UTC