PolymarketOpen

Will Chris Thomas be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?

No68%

Yes32%

Price checked at Sep 29, 08:38 PM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$285.3

Spread15%

ResolvesAug 1, 2027in 10 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the House of Keys of the Isle of Man are scheduled to take place on September 24, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chief Minister of the Isle of Man following the 2026 Isle of Man parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chief Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Isle of Man; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Jane Poole-Wilson be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?	Polymarket	84% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Alex Allinson be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Lawrie Hooper be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Rob Callister be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?	Polymarket	85% No	$112.3	—	—	Open
Will Alfred Cannan be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?	Polymarket	64% No	$57	—	—	Open

Venue activity

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Comments3

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3 comments

From Polymarket's own thread

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.

.sarexo · 2 months ago
boba dleh? bola
.uaelrix · 2 months ago
boba dleh?
BirobidjanTrader · 2 months ago
x robcallister status 2080676699784478791 : Callister and Hooper will not be PM, and the tone of the exchange suggests it will be a new PM and not Cannan. Which makes sense; only one PM has been re-elected in the island's history. Cannan faced the first no-confidence vote in history, and half of the MPs who brought him to power in 2021 have either withdrawn, withdrawn their support, or died (Wannenburgh). 40% was frankly too much.

As of Sep 29, 09:21 PM UTC